epistemic status: loosely held speculation

this is probably a pretty bad time to be holding very much money in crypto wallets and especially smart contracts.

mythos level cybersecurity capabilities will probably proliferate relatively nearterm, and zerodays on that scale means countless smart contracts hacked and countless keys leaked. i think it's pretty plausible the actual cores of Bitcoin and Ethereum remain stable, but unless you were very careful about setting up a hardware wallet and never exposed your keys you might already be in danger, and even then there's countless attacks possible that can drain everything without getting your keys.

and if your crypto is gone you have no recourse. even if banks get massively hacked there's a pretty sold chance everything gets reversed, or insurance pays out. you have far more protection against system failures.

now i will say if you give it a 6-12 month period of mythos level *hardening* on Ethereum + various specific wallets and smart contracts, it's likely they're also the most viable long term path we have to genuinely secure financial systems. banks will always be subject to social engineering and supply chain attacks in ways crypto at least can be more exempt from, and even if things can be rolled back it's a crazy inconvenience .

but self custody might be the wrong move for a while unless you're incredibly careful and paranoid . the threat models have changed